Geopolitical tensions
Europe reacted remarkably assertively to the Belarusian hijacking of a Ryanair flight from Greece to Lithuania. Onboard was journalist and opposition member Roman Protasevich, who is now facing [...]
No Japan scenario for eurozone
In the period 1986-1991, Japan experienced a double bubble, one in the real estate market and one in the stock market. Economic growth was fuelled by low-interest rates due to the strong yen, a [...]
The end of the new normal
In recent decades, western economies have struggled to recover from the recession. It seemed to take longer and longer for the economy to return to pre-recession levels. The recovery was given [...]
The renminbi may rise further
In the past year, the Chinese currency has risen by ten percent against the dollar. The risks of shadow banking in China have been pointed out for years, but in 12 months more debt has been added [...]
Luxury problems
The official jobs figure of 266,000 last Friday was much lower than the one million the market had expected. In addition, the March figure was revised sharply downwards from 916,000 to 770,000. [...]
Temporary inflation
The current policy of the US central bank is to allow inflation to move above the long-term trend line of 2 percent for some time before the Federal Reserve intervenes. Inflation has been below [...]
Best year start for commodities since 1973
Commodities are not a structural asset class, because there is no structural risk premium on commodities. In fact, the risk premium is probably negative, because innovation and productivity gains [...]