The Divided Kingdom
Sinn Féin, the political arm of the IRA, became the largest party in Northern Ireland with 27 seats. The Unionist Protestants won 25 seats. When the Irish Free State was declared in 1921, Northern Ireland remained occupied by the British. Sinn Féin’s goal is reunification with Ireland and this landslide has brought that a lot closer. It is possible that there will be a referendum on joining Ireland and, according to the agreements of 1998, at least half of the population must agree. Moreover, London must approve such a referendum.
Northern Ireland assembly elections
According to the latest polls, one-third of the population now wants to join Ireland. That may change the moment a hard border is drawn again between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The reason why the Unionists lost is not only because they are no longer in the majority (the Unionists do have 17,000 more votes, but the distribution of seats is a result of the district system), but it is also because of the great dissatisfaction with Brexit and especially the Northern Ireland Protocol. As a result, there is now a (trade) border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the no longer so United Kingdom.
How checks between Britain and Northern Ireland work
Now the Unionists only want to be in government with Sinn Féin if the problems surrounding the Northern Ireland Protocol are resolved. With that, a coalition is not possible. The British government would then have to renegotiate Brexit and, of course, London does not hold the strongest cards, especially against Macron who has just been elected for a second term. Moreover, this victory inspires the pursuit of independence for Scotland and now Wales as well. It is unlikely that the European Union will support the independence of the Scots or other parts of Great Britain. Especially a country like Spain does not want to set a precedent for Catalan or Basque independence.
As early as the Brexit referendum, it became clear that a vote for Brexit would be a vote against the United Kingdom. Many countries in the European Union have similar problems to the United Kingdom. Europe is actually made up of more than 100 regional areas with often forced national states above them. As these nation-states transfer more and more of their sovereign power to Europe, the link between the voter and the politicians is being diluted. This provides new impetus for regional parties. Europe’s strength lies in its uniformity and not in a European unitary state led by France and Germany. More political power for the different regions is required to make a united Europe a success, but the nation-states will not want to give up their power so quickly.
Indirectly, the war in Ukraine contributed to Sinn Féin’s victory, as the party’s main agenda during the elections was a social one, including the sharp rise in prices due to Brexit and the Russian invasion. Next year, elections will be held in Italy and Spain, among other countries. There, economic conditions will play a bigger role in the outcome than in the last French elections. In addition to the negative effects of the coming recession in Europe, the sharp rise in prices has a negative effect on the political uncertainty index. Bear in mind that the European Union, and with it the euro, is still a divergent system. France is just one recession away from Italy and the ECB’s primacy is above all to preserve the euro (no euro, no ECB) therefore even fighting inflation comes second.
